In this video, we reveal the secrets on how market timers keep the illusion alive that they are about to get investors in & out of the market to get investors all kinds of great retrns with low risk. In minute 25, we analyze the claims of a market timing guru (self described). If market timing were possible, then there would be MANY successful mutual funds that use market timing to outperform the market. Yet, the mutual fund industry has a graveyard of funds and managers that have attempted to time the market. Don't be duped! Watch this video to find out how they keep the illusion alive, then at the end of the video, find out what you should be doing.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Technical Analysis is Meaningless (2:07)
Technical rules are broken every day. This is false patterning, seeing patterns that really don’t exist. Don’t use this useless information to try and predict the future.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Market Timing = Guessing (1:34)
Should I get in the market? Should I get out of the market? These are the wrong questions. The following questions are just a few that are far more important. Am I diversified? What are the risk measurements in my portfolio? Does my money manager rebalance my portfolio? Life and investing would be so easy if we could predict and time the market. We would all be billionaires! No one can consistently get in and out of the market on a reliable basis to get additional returns without risk. Anyone can get lucky, even a few times in a row. If you try and predict the future and time the market, you have to guess right twice, when to get out and when to get in. The burden is high. And, you have to do it consistently right over decades. Market timing often leads to costly underperformance over the long term.
The simple truth is no one can predict the future. There are too many unpredictable future variables (good and bad) that drive the market prices up or down short term. Think of all the factors that go into market prices…the weather, natural disasters, manmade disasters, political decisions, wars, technology discoveries, medical discoveries, where you shopped (or didn’t shop) today, people’s feelings, hopes, dreams, instincts, perceptions, facts, data, statistics, new news, and the list goes on and on. There are literally trillions of variables. There is no chart or system that can factor in these unknown random variables to reliably predict a stock price or market direction. There are many “gurus” that will make you believe that they can. If you are an educated investor, you won’t be duped.
Diversify, know your risk, buy, and rebalance….not buy and hold. Stay disciplined in a quality diversified portfolio according to your risk tolerance.
This is an old but timeless video. Watch this short video and find out why market timing is not a reliable method of investing and is just pure speculation.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Dedicated to Your Peace of Mind,
John Borger & Scott Buchanan
Past performance is no guaratee of future results.
Market Timing = Perceived Control (1:33)
Seasoned investors know that the average returns that a diversified portfolio delivers include both upside volatility and downside volatility. We teach investors to stay disciplined after down periods and allow us to rebalance (if necessary), because you never know when the next upswing will occur. The markets have gone up 2/3rds of the time and down 1/3rd of the time, with the percentage gains, far outnumbering the percentage losses during down periods. This is nothing new. Seasoned investors know this.
Discipline is necessary to be a good investor and this is why investing is not easy and most investors don’t get the returns that are available to them. Fear and greed overcome their investing strategies. Market rebounds often come fast and furious for reasons unknown to us.
This month is a perfect example. It appears that following a really bad negative quarter, October 2011 is going to be the one of the best months in over 20 years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Who could have predicted it at the end of last quarter? I think you know the answer…no one!
I don’t know what the next month will bring, but I do know it has paid to remain diversified and disciplined. Stock pickers and investors that get in and out of the market have perceived control over their portfolio. Investors who jump in or out of the market during up or down swings mistake their activity for control. In reality, the more activity and trading you generate in a portfolio, the more out of control the portfolio becomes. Dalbar studies show that this activity costs most of these investors big money.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Dedicated to Your Peace of Mind,
John Borger & Scott Buchanan
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Tactical Allocation = Market Timing in Disguise (7:50)
What's the difference between Tactical Asset Allocation and Strategic Asset Allocation? Is Tactical Asset Allocation just market timing in disguise? Check out the following clip by Mark and he will demonstrate the speculation involved in this strategy.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Dedicated to Your Peace of Mind,
John Borger & Scott Buchanan
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Hindenburg Omen - Another Market Timing Scheme (5:05)
Ok, they told you to get out! When do you get back in? When you try to time the market, you have to guess right twice...when to get in & to get out.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
You Should Have Timed the Market...Really? (21:03)
Journalists often data mine and use data to prove a point. See how this one journalist did it, so you don't become a victim of the misinformation in the press, which could lead you to bad investment decisions. You will be shocked by what the journalists teach investors with no facts to back it up.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Study Reveals You Can't Time the Market (9:53)
A TD Ameritrade study reveals that just like individual investors, financial advisors really can't time the market either! They are subject to the same emotions as everyone else and are also subject to considerable pressure from clients that want to misbehave to their own detriment. We will not time the market. We will not allow you to time the market. This is why it is so important to have an investment policy statement so both the advisor and the investor don’t engage in costly behavior. It is critically important to hire an advisor that will teach you how to remain disciplined, because without discipline for a lifetime, nothing else matters. Stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined for your lifetime, and rebalance when necessary, so you don’t have to try and predict the future.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Market Timing Disguised as Tactical Asset Allocation (18:59)
Check out this analysis of yet another reporter's misleading article of recommendations for investors. Don't be led astray by misleading articles that claim to be able to tell you what sectors will be the best in the future. No one knows!
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Professor French on Timing the Market (5:15)
Professor Kenneth French of Dartmouth talks about investing strategies. Why should you care what Mr. French says? He is an expert on the behavior of security prices and investment strategies. He and co-author Eugene F. Fama are well known for their research into the value effect and the three-factor model, including articles such as “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns” and “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.”
Professor French talks about hot managers…on how there is no way to identify them in advance, and there is no way to determine if they were lucky or good. Check out this discussion on the difficulty of trying to time the markets and you are more likely to miss the good years as you are to miss the bad years. Stay disciplined in a broad based diversified portfolio around the world with a portfolio adjusted for your risk tolerance, and then rebalance when markets go up or down to keep your risk in line.
Historically, the markets have gone up every two out of three years, so your chances of success are much better staying disciplined, than trying to guess the future.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Investment Newsletter Trickery (12:11)
For all investors that currently subscribe to investment newsletters, or have been tempted to subscribe in the past (or future)...this video is for you. Bottom line, a newsletter's past performance has ZERO correlation to how it will perform in the future. Add in the fact that these stock picks don't include trading fees, or bid/ask spread costs, or the timing (or mistiming)of an investor's buy or sell, and the TRUE numbers can be way off base.
Newsletters or timing services are not regulated, so they can say virtually anything to get you to buy into their schemes. Of course, there will be some newsletters that will have decent or even exceptional performance over short periods of time. However, just like in any stock picking or market timing scheme, you have to know which one it will be IN ADVANCE!
If anyone could tell us in advance what the next best investment will be, investing would be easy. It's impossible. If anyone tells you they have some sort of amazing forecasting ability, hold on to your wallet and run...do not walk away from this charlatan. Cancel your subscriptions today and save yourself some money. Check out what Michelle has to say about the actual documented performance of investment newsletters (despite their claims of huge returns).
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Dr. Harry Markowitz on Market Timing & Track Records (2:03)
In this short video, Dr. Harry Markowitz gives his opinion on Market Timing, Track Records, and the one grand overriding truth to investing. He is best known for his pioneering work in Modern Portfolio Theory, studying the effects of asset risk, return, correlation and diversification on probable investment portfolio returns. The Markowitz Efficient Frontier is the set of all portfolios that will give the highest expected return for each given level of risk. This man is worth listening to. Dr. Harry Markowitz: Nobel Laureate, Economics 1990.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Is the Market Predictable? (4:57)
In this segment, Mark teaches why no one will ever be able to predict the short term direction of the markets on a reliable basis. There are just too many unpredictable inputs and variables. Investors make the mistake of seeing patterns where patterns don’t exist to make a prediction of the market direction, not understanding there are literally trillions of inputs that go into determining market prices. There are too many future variables (good and bad) that drive the market prices up or down short term. Think of all the factors that go into market prices…the weather, natural disasters, manmade disasters, political decisions, technology discoveries, medical discoveries, where you shopped (or didn’t shop) today, people’s feelings, hopes, dreams, instincts, perceptions, facts, data, statistics, new news, and the list goes on and on.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Can Anyone Predict the Market Direction? (4:52)
Mathematician R. Lyman Ott explains why it is impossible to forecast the markets with any reliability over a 5, 10, or 20 year or more period (anyone can get lucky now and then). And why no one ever will be able to create a mathematical formula or devise a chart to predict and forecast future trends of the markets. Anyone that tells you they can forecast and predict the markets, or get you in and out at the right times, or tell you in advance what the right sectors will be, or tell you which stocks will be the best in advance is blatantly lying!
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
Nobody Ever Calls it Market Timing (22:23)
The lure of market timing is strong, appealing to our instinctive nature to move toward that which helps our survival and away from painful market conditions. The hook investors bite onto is wish fulfillment. They want to believe that there is someone that can consistently predict and forecast the future to get outsized returns without any additional risk. If someone could do it, life and investing would be so easy. Don’t fall for it. Returns come from the capital markets, and diversification is the best way to control risk.
Don't try and time the market. Getting in an out is a losers game. Because of our emotions driven by the news headlines, this is easier said than done. If you try and predict the future and time the market, you have to guess right twice, when to get out and when to get in. The burden is high. And, you have to do it consistently right over decades. Market timing often leads to costly underperformance over the long term. Even if you know the future economic headlines, you may guess the direction of the market wrong. Watch this entire video and check out the issues with market timing so you won’t fall for these schemes. This is an important lesson for all investors.
Diversify, know your risk, buy, and rebalance….not buy and hold.
Continue to learn, stay diversified according to your risk tolerance, stay disciplined, and rebalance. Education is your best defense against imprudent investing. Invest intelligently!
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
▪ John and Scott
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